Overview of domestic plastic market in July

2022-10-15
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Summary of domestic plastic market in July

the low density polyethylene market is mainly stable, with little change

in July, the domestic low density polyethylene (LDPE) market showed a steady upward trend. After several months of decline, the market finally began to rebound, and some middlemen also began to re-enter the market to attract goods. However, the main reason for the market rebound this time is not the increase in demand, but the sharp rise in the price of Yanhua. Since the first ten days of July, the price of low-density polyethylene in Yanhua has increased by 500 ~ 900 yuan/ton in just over half a month, while that of other enterprises is about 200 ~ 300 yuan/ton, which is far from that of Yanhua. Moreover, the price rise of other low-density polyethylene production enterprises is also mostly affected by the price adjustment of Yanhua. At present, the price of Yanhua low density polyethylene film material is 7900 yuan/ton, which is nearly 700 yuan/ton higher than that of other enterprises, which is really unique. It is analyzed that the reason for this special phenomenon is mainly caused by the hype of some middlemen who borrowed Yanhua's upcoming overhaul

at present, the domestic market price of LDPE in Shandong is 7200 ~ 7900 yuan/ton, and the market price in Jiangsu and Zhejiang is 7300 ~ 8100 yuan/ton. If the price of Yanhua is excluded, the actual price is only about 200 yuan/ton higher than that in late June

in August, the domestic low-density polyethylene market should be said to be more subtle. Although Yanhua overhaul will reduce the market supply to a certain extent, it is unlikely that the market price will rise significantly. It is estimated that the market will still maintain this stable and rising pattern in July. The reasons are as follows: (1) the domestic market demand for LDPE is still unlikely to increase significantly

at present, the domestic market demand for low-density polyethylene is obviously insufficient, especially the shortage of external orders is common among product enterprises in many regions, so the operating rate is relatively low, which will inevitably lead to the reduction of demand for low-density polyethylene. Judging from the current situation, this lack of demand will continue for some time, so it can be said that the low-density polyethylene market will not perform well in August

(2) domestic imports are likely to increase further

in June and July, ethylene manufacturers in the Far East had a relatively large impact on the supply of polyethylene raw materials in the downstream of the Far East due to the relatively centralized maintenance and the annual inspection of ethylene production capacity of more than 4million tons. With the arrival of August, the maintenance of these enterprises will gradually end, which will inevitably lead to the increase of imports of low-density polyethylene. In addition, the recent overhaul of the polyethylene plant in Russia will also end, and its low-cost low-density polyethylene will inevitably re impact the domestic market, which is detrimental to the stability of the low-density polyethylene market

the high-density polyethylene market is stable and slightly rising, and the future market is more optimistic

in July, various varieties of domestic high-density polyethylene (HDPE) market performed differently, and the high-density polyethylene wire drawing material with better market performance. After several consecutive months of decline, the wire drawing material market as a whole has shown a slight recovery trend, and all production enterprises have generally raised the ex factory price. Due to the shortage of resources in local markets, transactions are also relatively active. The main reasons for the rebound of HDPE wire drawing material market are as follows: first, Yangzi Petrochemical started the maintenance for nearly a month in early July, and the social supply was significantly reduced; Second, imported low-cost high-density polyethylene has not been much recently, and its impact on the market has weakened; Third, Yanhua continuously adjusted the price upward due to the upcoming overhaul, which also stimulated the recovery of the market. However, it is worth noting that the rebound of HDPE wire drawing material has not led to the rebound of other HDPE varieties, but the market price of other varieties such as injection plastic has always been declining, and the current price is 400 ~ 500 yuan/ton lower than that of wire drawing material

at present, the market price of HDPE (wire drawing material) in Shandong is about 7100 ~ 7300 yuan/ton, and that in Jiangsu and Zhejiang is about 7200 ~ 7300 yuan/ton, an increase of 200 ~ 300 yuan/ton compared with late June

from the recent market situation, the domestic HDPE market will still be dominated by a small increase, and the price is expected to rise further, but the increase will not be too large. Overall, the author is cautiously optimistic about the future market of domestic HDPE, and the specific analysis is as follows:

favorable factors: in August, the domestic HDPE wire drawing material market resources will still be relatively tight

recently, as the processing capacity of Yangzi and foreign-funded enterprises in China is being overhauled, the supply of high-density polyethylene in the market is significantly reduced. With the end of Yangzi overhaul in August, Yanhua company will also carry out a two-month overhaul, especially PP and PE with low viscosity, which is more difficult to shear. Based on the current experiment, these two high-density polyethylene enterprises will be overhauled one after another, It will directly cause the shortage of resources in the domestic HDPE wire drawing material market in the whole third quarter. In addition, in the early stage, because the HDPE market has been relatively depressed, the middlemen did not stock up much HDPE wire drawing material, so it can be said that the social inventory of the whole HDPE wire drawing material is not too high at present, and the basic balance between supply and demand will play a great role in the continued warming of the domestic HDPE wire drawing material market

adverse factors: imported low-cost goods may impact the domestic HDPE market

recently, although the price of domestic HDPE wire drawing materials has increased, we should see that there is no support of large trading volume behind it, which is also a manifestation of insufficient demand. Since the beginning of this year, due to the weakening of the world economy, the demand of domestic downstream processing enterprises has continued to decrease, resulting in the fact that middlemen are not particularly optimistic about the future market of domestic HDPE, their enthusiasm for entering the market is weak, and their enthusiasm for speculation is not too high. With the arrival of August, some low-cost imported goods ordered in the early stage will also flow into the domestic market, and their prices are much lower than those in the domestic market (more than twoorthree yuan), which will inevitably cause certain pressure on the further rise of the market price of domestic HDPE wire drawing materials

the market price of polypropylene continues to fall, and there will be a stable trend in the future.

Asian market: since late July, the market price of homopolymer grade polypropylene in Asia has rebounded, and the quotation of sellers in Southeast Asia and Northeast Asia is $520 ~ 540/ton (CFR), up $20/ton from the beginning of the month; The buyer's quotation is 510 ~ 515 dollars/ton (CFR Asia), an increase of 5 ~ 10 dollars/ton

the main reason for the resumption of market prices is that a large number of work stoppages in Southeast Asia and South Korea support the price intention higher than $500/ton (CFR). (1) Due to the power failure accident in Taiwan Linyuan last week, the petrochemical plants were shut down abnormally, especially the shortage of propylene supply, which made some polypropylene manufacturers reduce the load, and the operating rate was basically between 50% and 80%; (2) South Korean manufacturers are considering reducing the operating rate due to the high contract price of propylene. Affected by the reduction of the operating rate of two naphtha cracking units, the operating rate of the 450000 T/a polypropylene unit in Dashan of Hyundai Petrochemical Company in South Korea fell to 80-85% in early July. In addition, American cheap goods exported to Asia in the early stage have been digested, and there is no news of American cheap goods imported in the market recently, which also contributed to the strengthening of the market and a slight rise in prices

domestic market: in July, the domestic polypropylene market price showed a slight decline with a limited decline. At present, the market price of wire drawing material is 5800 ~ 6100 yuan/ton, the price of plastic injection is maintained at 6000 ~ 6600 yuan/ton (including copolymerization grade), and the price of film material is maintained at 6200 ~ 6400 yuan/ton

the main influencing factors of the market are analyzed as follows:

(1) in summer, although the downstream demand is gradually recovering, the weather is hot. In addition, Guangdong, Fujian and other places have been hit by tropical storms one after another, and many industries, including polypropylene downstream processing enterprises, have been damaged. Therefore, the demand is still light, and the market is relatively depressed

(2) in the early stage, polypropylene from the United States, Russia, the Middle East and other places gradually flowed into China, especially in South China and East China, where more goods arrived, affecting the stability of the market

(3) at present, the domestic supply is relatively stable, and the social inventory is high. Yangzi Petrochemical is about to overhaul. Although it will reduce part of the supply, it is still a cup of water, which has little impact on the market

the above analysis shows that the current decline in the domestic polypropylene market price is mainly due to the impact of low-cost imports from the United States and the slow recovery of domestic demand. With the rebound of Asian market prices, the impact of low-cost goods from the United States has gradually weakened, and domestic demand has gradually recovered. It is believed that the domestic polypropylene market will gradually come out of the downturn, and the market price is expected to stop falling and stabilize in August

the polystyrene market is still facing downward pressure, but the space is limited

in July, under the pressure of the repeated decline of the upstream raw material styrene price, the domestic polystyrene (PS) market continued to decline slightly, the market demand is also extremely light, and the operating rate of downstream enterprises is still generally not high. At present, the ex factory price of domestic manufacturers is still high, but the actual sales price is adjusted to be at least 100 ~ 200 yuan/ton lower than their own quotation. At the same time, many enterprises have various preferential policies, which also caused the current market price extremely chaotic situation

recently, the lowest price in the domestic market has fallen to 5800 ~ 5900 yuan/ton, while the price in most regions is also 5900 ~ 6000 yuan/ton, a decline of about 200 yuan/ton from the end of last month

in August, the domestic polystyrene market is still facing downward pressure, and the market still has a certain degree of room for decline, but the decline is not too large, and it is estimated that it will still maintain the trend of slight decline in the early stage. The main reasons are as follows:

(1) the decline of styrene price makes some buyers wait-and-see for the future market

in the past month, the international styrene price has fallen continuously, with a decline of about US $20 every week. At present, it has fallen to about US $410 ~ 420/ton. If the market price of styrene still cannot stabilize quickly, it is estimated that most buyers will still be difficult to enter the market to attract goods, which will inevitably make the demand of polystyrene market more exhausted

(2) vicious price competition makes the market unable to stabilize

recently, although some domestic polystyrene production enterprises have not significantly reduced the price, the market price is relatively chaotic due to the very flexible sales policy and various preferential measures. At the same time, the market is also full of low-cost polystyrene without invoices, whose price is about 200 yuan/ton lower than the normal ex factory price. If this situation cannot be contained, the future polystyrene market will not be stable at all

(3) the demand of downstream processing enterprises will not increase

due to the current low season of polystyrene demand, the operating rate of downstream processing enterprises is generally very low. It is estimated that with the arrival of August, the demand of processing enterprises will not increase much, so this also inhibits the stability of the domestic polystyrene market

the weak market of polyester chips is still

market conditions

the domestic market price in China has not changed and remains at the early stage of 6700 ~ 6900 yuan/ton (ex works). It is said that the quotation of small chip manufacturers is 6600 yuan/ton (ex works). Recent domestic polyester staple fiber and filament

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